Presidential Polls: States that may determine the winner

LESS than 14 days to the presidential election, a
number of states are emerging as votes swinging
blocs that will shape the outcome of the polls.
BY CHARLES KUMOLU
WITH just two weeks to the 2015 presidential
election, there is no doubt that votes in states with
high density registered voters, would most likely
determine who wins the contest.
Unlike other states, Lagos, Kano, Rivers, Kaduna,
Katsina, Niger, Plateau, Delta, Benue and Bauchi are
expected to be prioritised by the campaign
organisations of the Peoples Democratic Party,
PDP, and All Progressives Congress, APC.
An in depth analysis of the emerging electoral
map, showed that these states have 30, 015, 291
registered voters, representing nearly 43 percent of
the total number of registered voters across the
country which the Independent Electoral
Commission, INEC pegged at 70,383,427.
In the 2011 presidential elections, Major-General
Muhammadu Buhari, retd, who was the candidate
of the defunct Congress of Progressive Change,
CPC, won in five of these states – Kano, Katsina,
Kaduna, Bauchi, and Niger
President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP also won
in five – Lagos, Rivers, Plateau, Benue and Delta.
In spite of the fact that Nigeria’s electoral map is
continuously undergoing transmutation, occasioned
by the sustained updating of voters register and
rate of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) collection,
these areas remain pivotal in deciding how far any
of the candidates can go.
Since a good number of the states are being
controlled by the PDP, it may not be wrong to
assume that the party would have an edge over
the APC in those areas, but that may not totally be
the case as a result of many factors.
Prominent among the reasons are the issues of
religion, ethnicity, changing alliances and party
loyalty, which are deciding factors in these
hotbeds.
The foregoing, analysts argued, highlight the
challenges that Jonathan and Buhari may face in
framing arguments that would attract votes in
these battle grounds.
Further probe into the electoral map showed that
much as the states offer reasons for hope, there
are so many reasons for the APC and PDP to be
apprehensive.
LAGOS:
With a voting strength of 5,905,852 Lagos is
known to have the highest number of registered
voters in the country.
Out of this number about 2,2 67,039 people have
collected their PVCs, while about 1.8 million PVCs
are yet to be collected.
Vanguard gathered that INEC in the state has so far
received about four million PVCs. Though Lagos is
the stronghold of the APC, it could as well be
described as a swing state given its
heterogeneous nature which cuts across party
leanings. It is for this reason that pundits are
undivided about the likely direction of the
pendulum.
To them, it is neither here nor there, hence the
circumspection against concluding on the possible
winner of the presidential race in the state.
Instructively, President Jonathan scored 1,281,688
votes against Buhari’s 189, 983 in 2011.
Whether the 2011 voting pattern would play out in
Africa’s most populous city, is likely to be
determined by the unusual audacious outing the
opposition is having this time.
KANO
Kano is officially the most populous state in
Nigeria. With a population of about 11 million
people, the state has 44 local government areas,
LGAs, making it very crucial in political
calculations in the country’s multiparty system.
So important is the numerical edge of the state
that the fate of presidential aspirants are, to a large
extent, often determined by the support of Kano
delegates during party primaries.
Like other core northern states, the voting pattern
in Kano, usually toe along ethno religious lines.
In 2011, the religious cleavages in the system were
prevalent, resulting in the lean number of votes the
PDP recorded in the state.
The CPC candidate scored 1,624,543 votes while
the PDP had 440, 666. Though the state is
currently being governed by the APC, analysts
believe that the voting pattern would further
influence how far any of the leading presidential
candidates can go.
The state has 4,975,701 registered voters, making
it the second after Lagos. Unfortunately, over 40
percent of these eligible voters may not vote as a
result of the low collection rate of PVCs. As at the
time of filing this report, only 2,612,400 PVCs have
been distributed across the 44 local councils of the
state.
KATSINA
The cruciality of Katsina is pegged on three key
factors: it is the home state of Buhari, has many
registered voters and 79 per cent of the would-be-
voters have collected the PVC These three
elements would be so pivotal in the race given
that they might shape the voting pattern.
Considering the fact that the twin issues of religion
and ethnicity, had in the past, played pivotal role in
the voting pattern in Katsina, predicting a repeat of
history may not be difficult.
It is expected that 2,245, 303 voters representing
the number of PVCs collected would vote on the
Election Day out of 2,827,943 registered voters.
KADUNA
With latest report ranking Kaduna as the state with
the highest rate of PVCs collection, the state is
certainly a battle ground. Aside leading in PVCs
collection rate, Kaduna is the home state of Vice
President Namadi Sambo and also a melting pot
with high number of indigenous Christians.
In 2011, Buhari and Jonathan ran a tight race in
Kaduna, which Buhari narrowly won. Buhari scored
1,334, 244 votes while Jonathan had 1,190,179
votes, which reconfirmed the unpredictable voting
pattern of the state. Out of 3,407,222 registered
voters, 2,976,628 people have collected their PVCs,
indicating a 62 percent collection rate.
NIGER
More than half of the entire 3,950,249 population of
Niger State were registered during the various
voters’ registration exercises in the state.
At the moment, Niger has 2,014,317 registered
voters and 62 two percent of this population are in
possession of their PVCs. Specifically, 1,250,379
PVCs have been collected.
Incidentally, Niger which is the home state of
former heads of state, General Ibrahim Babangida,
retd, and Gen Abdulsalami Abubakar (retd), giving
it a very crucial space in the country’s electoral
map.These leaders are known to have large
followership across the country, considering the
various roles they had played in the country’s
political evolution.
Already, Babangida, in a move seen as having
sweeping implications in the race, recently
declared his support for Buhari, in the upcoming
elections.
The 2011 election results showed that Jonathan
had 321,429 votes while Buhari won with 652,574
votes.
BAUCHI
Apart from having 2,054,125 registered voters,
Bauchi has so far, recorded nearly 85 per cent
PVCs distribution rate.
Another feature that stands Bauchi out as a
possible battleground is the fact that the PDP
National Chairman, Alhaji Adamu Muazu, hails from
there.
Muazu, a former governor of the state, is expected
to deliver the state for his party.
Already, the state is already making the headlines
for alleged anti-Jonathan activities, occasioned by
the stoning of the President’s convoy.
Bauchi is among the states where the PDP had a
poor outing in the 2011 presidential election.
President Jonathan had 258,404 votes in that
exercise while Buhari won with 1,315, 209 votes.
Barring any downward or upward change in the
number of PVCs distributed, about 1, 745, 441
voters would vote in next month’s election.
PLATEAU
The violence ravaged state, is among the few
places in the North were the President won in 2011
presidential election.
The result of that election, to a large extent,
conformed to arguments that the Christian/Muslim
dichotomy played a decisive role in the exercise.
Accordingly, Jonathan had 1, 029,865 votes, while
Buhari scored 356,551 votes.
The number of registered voters in Plataea is 2,
001,825 while 1,141,260 people have so far
collected their PVCs.
RIVERS
Known for its usual block votes for the PDP since
1999 the state would undoubtedly be a
battleground considering the gains the APC has
made as a result of the defection of Governor
Rotimi Amaechi.
The likely voting pattern in the presidential
election, will for a long time dominate most post-
election discourse. The number of registered
voters in Rivers is 2,537,590, but a lower
percentage of that figure would vote in the election.
The development is not unconnected with the fact
that only 1, 253,606 PVCs have been distributed
by INEC.
Against that backdrop, the state that gave
President Jonathan 1,817,762 votes in 2011, may
not record up to 50 percent participation in the
race.
DELTA
With 2, 275,264 registered voters, Delta is the
second most numerically strong state in the
South-South geo-political zone.
Even though over one million of these voters would
not vote in the polls, about 1,422,595 votes are up
for grabs.
The state voted massively for President Jonathan
in 2011 with 1, 378, 851 votes.
BENUE
In Benue, 1, 132,187 votes are for up grabs. This
figure represents the number of PVCs distributed in
the state out the 2,015,452 registered voters.
In 2011, President Jonathan garnered 694, 776
votes while Buhari got 109,680 votes.